Non-Rating Action Commentary
French Banks Face Volatile Investment Banking Revenue & High Loan Impairment Charges
Thu 15 Oct, 2009 - 4:10 AM ET
ֳ-London/Paris-15 October 2009: ֳ says in a semi-annual review published this week that some positive contributors to French banks' H109 revenue are not likely to be sustainable and that the rise in loan impairment charges appears set to continue.
France's leading banks have proved to be fairly resilient to the global financial crisis. There have been no bank failures, large recapitalisations have been avoided and depositor confidence has been retained. Government measures addressing liquidity and solvency support have worked well and most of the country's main banks have engaged in the repayment of Tier 1 capital instruments received from the State. For the co-operative groups, a shift away from investment banking will perhaps be one of the more enduring strategic features of the crisis.
"Nevertheless, ֳ is of the opinion that the crisis is far from over as signs of economic recovery in France appear, as yet, fragile and asset quality is deteriorating across all business lines and geographical zones," says Eric Dupont, Senior Director with ֳ's Financial Institutions team. "Capital ratios for France's leading banks are largely acceptable, given their risk profile and expected internal capital generation ability, but could become a source of ratings concern if they fail to keep pace with international peers."
ֳ is most comfortable with BNP Paribas (rated 'AA'/'F1+'/Negative), Credit Agricole (rated 'AA-'/'F1+'/Stable) and Credit Mutuel Centre Est Europe (whose issuing vehicle is rated 'AA-'/'F1+'/Stable) given their solid and/or diversified revenue base from retail franchises. Societe Generale (rated 'A+'/'F1+'/Stable) will probably continue to face challenging times, particularly within its Central and East European portfolios. The severe problems faced by Natixis (rated 'A+'/'F1+'/Stable/Individual Rating 'E') have taken their toll on 71% shareholder Groupe BPCE (rated 'A+'/'F1+'/Stable), and while these two groups announced a return to profit from Q309, further write-downs on Natixis' EUR42bn portfolio of troubled assets can not be ruled out.
After a poor H208, French banks published improved results for H109. The better results were supported by exceptionally strong activity in fixed-income investment banking divisions and by sustained excellent asset quality in housing loan portfolios. On the negative side, loan impairment charges increased significantly from a low base, and troubled assets identified during the crisis required additional write-downs/provisions. Looking forward, some positive exceptional items in H109 related to investment banking are unlikely to be repeated, demand for domestic retail banking products remains subdued and loan impairment charges are expected to increase further, so it can not be assumed that H109 performance will be repeated or improved, with the exception of Groupe BPCE, which is likely to return to profitability. Throughout the system, bank management is focusing on reducing the cost base and keeping loan impairment charges under control.
The review, 'Major French banks - Semi-Annual Review and Outlook', is available on the agency's public website, .
Contacts: Eric Dupont, Paris, Tel: +33 (0) 1 4429 9131; Janine Dow, +33 (0) 1 4429 9138 ; James Longsdon, London, Tel: +44 (0) 20 7417 4309.
Media Relations: Francoise Alos, Paris, Tel: +33 1 44 29 91 22, Email: francoise.alos@fitchratings.com; Hannah Warrington, London, Tel: +44 (0) 207 417 6298, Email: hannah.warrington@fitchratings.com.
Additional information is available at .