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US global trading and universal banks (GTUBs) have significantly outperformed their European peers for several years, but ���������ֳ� expects the performance gap to narrow over the next two years. This is consistent with ���������ֳ�’s expectation of converging macroeconomic growth in the US and Europe in 2025 and 2026. We also expect the dispersion of operating profit/RWA ratios across the peer group to fall back into line with the period preceding the interest rate hike cycle. Strong trading revenues have supported GTUBs’ operating profit/RWAs ratios since 2020. European GTUBs have had more benefit from the post-2022 higher interest rates, but this is likely to have peaked in 1H24, except for BNPP and SG, which will benefit from 2025. Mitigating rising pressure on NII by maintaining high trading revenue will be increasingly difficult for most GTUBs.