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Rating Report

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.

Mon 15 Apr, 2024 - 10:11 PM ET

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.’s ratings and Outlook reflect ֳ’ expectation EBITDA margins will average around 9% and EBITDA leverage will continue to be sustained below 2.5x and EBITDA through 2027. Significant Debt Repayment: Cliffs benefitted from a period of highly elevated steel prices in 2021-2023, which led to over $9.5 billion in EBITDA and roughly $4.9 billion in FCF, combined over the three-year period. The company used cashflow primarily for debt repayment, paying down roughly $3.1 billion as of YE 2023 from YE 2020. In addition, Cliffs' allocated roughly $1.4 billion to share repurchases and made a roughly $790 strategic acquisition. ֳ expects EBITDA leverage, 1.9x at Dec. 31, 2023, to continue to remain strong for the rating category and be sustained at or below 2.5x barring any material debt-funded acquisitions. Declining Profitability: ֳ expects EBITDA margins to average roughly 9% through 2027 given its steel price and cost expectations. However, profitability could outperform expectations, particularly if average realized steel prices are higher than anticipated. EBITDA margins declined to around 8% in 2023 compared with a peak since becoming a steel manufacturer of around 24% in 2021 in line with lower steel prices and higher costs.