Rating Action Commentary
ֳ Affirms NextEra Energy, Inc. & NEE Capital Holdings' IDRs; Also Affirms Florida Power & Light
Fri 27 Apr, 2012 - 11:31 AM ET
ֳ-New York-27 April 2012: ֳ has affirmed the Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) of NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE) and NextEra Energy Capital Holdings (Capital Holdings) at 'A-'. ֳ has also affirmed the IDR of Florida Power & Light (FPL) at 'A'. The Rating Outlook is Stable. A list of debt instruments affected is provided at the end of this release.
FPL
FPL's ratings reflect predictable cash flows from regulated electric operations, a slow but steady improvement in retail sales after a deep economic downturn, return to a more orderly and constructive regulatory environment, and strong balance sheet and liquidity profile. The ratings take into account a period of high utility capex over 2012 - 2016 as FPL modernizes its power generation fleet and uprates its nuclear capacity. The ratings also reflect ֳ's expectation that FPL is able to achieve a constructive regulatory outcome in its pending rate case and earn a reasonable return on its investments related to the modernization of its gas fleet.
FPL's south Florida service territory still has above average unemployment and a weak housing market. However, employment statistics are modestly and consistently improving. FPL's inactive accounts and low usage accounts are gradually waning. ֳ has assumed a modest customer and usage growth in its financial forecasts. FPL recovers more than half of the typical residential bill through clauses such as for fuel and power purchased costs, environmental expenditures, nuclear uprates, conservation and storm recovery.
FPL plans to spend over $10 billion in capex through 2015. Approximately $3.6 billion will be spent on modernizing its aging gas fleet at Cape Canaveral, Riviera Beach and Port Everglades, with the new gas-fired plants expected to be in service by 2013, 2014 and 2016, respectively. All these projects have been approved by the Florida Public Service Commission (FPSC). Recovery of these expenditures will be via a base rate increase, which is expected to result in only modest price increases for consumers due to anticipated fuel cost savings. Another $2.5 billion of the forecasted capex will be spent on nuclear uprates that have been approved by the PSC and are being recovered through the nuclear clause.
On March 19, 2012, FPL filed a $517 million base rate increase request with the FPSC for new rates to be effective January 2013. The rate increase request reflects an ROE of 11.25% with a 0.25% adder if FPL maintains the lowest typical residential bill in the state. FPL also requested an additional base rate increase of $174 million commencing with the completion of the modernization at Cape Canaveral (expected June 2013). ֳ has assumed a constructive outcome in FPL's pending rate case filing reflecting ֳ's view of an improved regulatory climate as evidenced by the recent rate decisions for other Florida utilities. A decision by the PSC is expected by the end of 2012.
ֳ expects FPL to finance its capex needs using a mix of equity and debt so as to maintain its regulatory capital structure. FPL's long-term debt financing vehicles are primarily taxable secured first mortgage bonds and tax-exempt revenue bonds. FPL has its own credit facilities separate from the NEE group to provide liquidity back-up for commercial paper funding and variable-rate tax-exempt revenue notes, as well as for issuance of letters of credit. FPL has demonstrated excellent access to the debt capital markets and commercial paper market, even during periods of capital markets stress.
ֳ anticipates FPL's credit metrics to weaken in 2012 as a result of base rate freeze implemented in the 2010 settlement agreement and use of surplus depreciation reserve to achieve targeted ROE range. Still, due to low individual debt leverage, FPL's credit metrics well exceed ֳ's guidelines for 'A' rating category and compare favorably with the credit statistics of 'A' IDR peer utilities. ֳ anticipates FPL's EBITDA based credit measures to improve 2013 onwards led by base rate increase effective January 2013 and forecasted stepped up revenue increases for the investments made in modernization of the gas fleet. ֳ expects EBITDA coverage ratio to be 8.0 - 8.5x and Debt to EBITDA ratio to be in the 2.4 - 2.5x range towards the end of the forecast period. The Funds Flow from Operations (FFO) based credit measures remain robust over 2012-13 due to bonus depreciation benefits and decline to more normalized levels thereafter. ֳ forecasts FFO to Debt ratio to be in the 25 - 27% range and FFO to interest coverage to approximate 6.5x toward the end of the forecast period.
Triggers for Future Rating Actions: Positive or negative rating actions for FPL look unlikely at this time. However, downward rating pressure could result from:
Change in Florida Regulation: Unfavorable changes in current Florida regulatory policies for timely recovery of utility capital investments, fuel and purchased power costs, and storm-related costs would adversely affect FPL's ratings. An adverse outcome in FPL's pending rate case would lead to a revision in ֳ's view that Florida regulatory environment has improved.
Increasing Parent Risk Profile: If parent NEE increases its debt leverage or changes its corporate strategy such that NEE's risk profile materially worsens, it could adversely affect FPL's ratings in line with ֳ's Parent and Subsidiary Rating Linkage Criteria.
NEE and Capital Holdings
NEE provides a full guarantee of Capital Holdings' debt and hybrids. Thus, Capital Holdings' ratings and Rating Outlook are identical to those of NEE. NEE's ratings reflect a shifting business mix through 2015 towards regulated and highly contracted cash flows driven by significant rate base growth opportunities at FPL, completion of regulated Lone Star transmission line in 2013, weak wholesale prices that reduces the contribution of non-contracted generation assets, and rising contribution from solar and Canadian wind investments that partially offset the decline in U.S. wind investments due to the 2012 expiration of tax subsidies.
Over 2012 - 15, NEE's cash flows from stable utility-type sources are expected to grow. At FPL, recovering retail sales and future rate cases to incorporate new rate base investments will produce revenue uplift. At Capital Holdings, completion of new Texas electric transmission assets will result in predictable tariff revenues. ֳ forecasts that regulated businesses will contribute more than 55% of NEE's EBITDA for the next several years. Within the non-regulated operations of NextEra Energy Resources (Energy Resources), Capital Holdings' wholly owned subsidiary, the contribution of long-term contracted generation assets will increase. ֳ expects contractual sources to drive another 25 - 30% of NEE's consolidated EBITDA over the next few years.
NEE continues to spend significant capital expenditure at both its FPL and Capital Holdings subsidiaries. Over the last few years, consolidated capex has been approximately $6 billion annually. Consolidated capex is expected to spike close to $8 billion in 2012 given the rate base expansion planned at FPL and 1,300 MWs of targeted U.S. wind build out at Energy Resources. The incremental leverage needed to finance this capex is expected to put pressure on 2012 credit metrics, though somewhat moderated by management's use of hybrid securities (ֳ accords 50% equity credit) to partly finance the capex at Capital Holdings. Beyond 2012, the consolidated capex is expected to fall to $3.5 billion in 2013 and progressively decline thereafter, reflecting only the announced and committed projects. ֳ's financial forecasts do not incorporate any incremental capex beyond the announced projects that underpin management's targeted earnings growth rate of 5 - 7% over 2011-14.
A significant driver of future capex growth at Energy Resources remains the extension of Production Tax Credits (PTCs) for U.S. wind generation, which absent congressional action will expire at the end of 2012. The company continues to pursue additional renewable opportunities in solar and Canadian wind, which could increase the capex beyond what is currently incorporated in ֳ's forecasts. ֳ expects the operating cash flow at Capital Holdings to significantly improve from 2014 onwards as tax payments from parent resumes assuming no extension of bonus depreciation benefits. This should accord significant financial flexibility to Capital Holdings to fund future investments.
On a consolidated basis, ֳ projects NEE to start generating significant free cash flow from 2014 as level of capex declines. NEE's cash flow has been buoyed by significant tax incentives (production and investment tax credits and accelerated depreciation and bonus depreciation benefits). NEE has accumulated tax incentives that ֳ assumes the company can continue to monetize against taxable income or via tax-oriented partnerships. ֳ forecasts NEE to start paying cash taxes beginning 2014 assuming no extension of bonus depreciation benefits, no incremental tax subsidies for U.S. wind projects and no incremental renewable investments beyond the announced projects. The scale of additional investments beyond 2012, source of funding for the incremental capex, and capital allocation of positive free cash flow beyond 2014 will be key drivers for NEE's future credit measures.
NEE's credit metrics, as reported, show more leverage than 'A-' peers. However, ֳ considers several factors that mitigate debt leverage. First, sales at Energy Resources are supported by off-take contracts for a longer term than most other peers (over 90% hedged over 2012 - 13). This provides NEE with greater insulation to commodity price movements as compared to other hybrid peers. Second, NEE's non-utility generation is concentrated in renewable and nuclear resources with favorable environmental characteristics. Finally, about $5.7 billion of consolidated debt (as of Dec. 31, 2011) is made up of project finance loans that have limited or no corporate recourse.
ֳ's adjusted consolidated credit metrics for NEE incorporates off-credit treatment to limited recourse debt at Energy Resources. This reflects ֳ's assumption that NEE would walk away from these projects in the event of financial deterioration, including those projects where a differential membership interest has been sold. ֳ accordingly excludes the debt, interest expense, EBITDA contribution and tax attributes from such projects and includes only the distributable cash flow.
ֳ anticipates NEE's adjusted credit metrics to weaken in 2012 due to higher debt to finance the heavy capex at both FPL and Capital Holdings and associated lag in recovery on these investments. ֳ anticipates NEE's adjusted credit measures to improve 2013 onwards led by base rate increase at FPL and contributions from new renewable investments at Capital Holdings. ֳ expects NEE's EBITDA coverage ratio to be in a 4.7 - 5.0x range and Debt to EBITDA ratio to be in the 3.5 - 4.0x range towards the end of the forecast period. These metrics are considerably weaker than peer 'A-' holding companies since the EBITDA does not capture the tax attributes of the renewable projects that are funded by recourse debt. ֳ forecasts NEE's FFO to Debt ratio to be in the 21 - 23% range and FFO to interest coverage to approximate 5.1x toward the end of the forecast period, which is roughly in-line with ֳ's guidelines for a 'A-' rated issuer.
NEE's ratings also reflect the company's strong access to the capital markets, commercial paper market and to banks for both corporate credit and project finance. Liquidity is robust with committed corporate credit facilities of the NEE group of companies aggregating approximately $8.1 billion, excluding limited recourse or non-recourse project financing arrangements. Debt maturities are manageable.
Triggers for Future Rating Actions: Positive rating actions on NEE and Capital Holdings appear unlikely at this time. Downward rating pressure could result from:
Deterioration in Florida Regulation: Any change in current FPSC regulatory policies or adverse outcome in the pending rate case at FPL would adversely affect NEE's and FPL's ratings.
Increase in Business Risk Profile: A change in strategy to invest in more speculative assets, non-contracted renewable assets or a lower proportion of cash flow under long-term contracts would increase business risk and could result in lower ratings for NEE. The high level of capital expenditures at both FPL and Capital Holdings creates completion risks, as well as funding risk.
Aggressive Financial Strategy: Any deterioration in credit measures that result from higher use of leverage or outsized return of capital to shareholders could lead to negative rating actions.
Change in Tax Laws or Regulations: Changes in tax rules that reduce NEE's ability to monetize its accumulated production tax credits, investment tax credits, and accumulated tax losses carried forward would be adverse to NEE's cash flow credit measures.
ֳ has affirmed the following with Stable Outlook:
NextEra Energy, Inc.
--Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'A-'.
NextEra Energy Capital Holdings, Inc.
--IDR at 'A-';
--Senior unsecured debentures at 'A-';
--Equity Units at 'A-';
--Jr. Subordinate hybrids at 'BBB';
--Short-term IDR and commercial paper at 'F1'.
FPL Group Capital Trust I
--Trust preferred stock at 'BBB'.
Florida Power & Light Company
--IDR at 'A';
--First mortgage bonds at 'AA-';
--Unsecured pollution control revenue bonds at 'A+';
--Short-term IDR and commercial paper at 'F1'.
Contacts:
Primary Analyst
Shalini Mahajan, CFA
Director
+1 212-908-0351
One State Street Plaza
New York, NY 10004
Secondary Analyst
Julie Jiang
Director
+1 212-908-0708
Committee Chairperson
Glen Grabelsky
Managing Director
+1 212-908-0577
Media Relations: Brian Bertsch, New York, Tel: +1 212-908-0549, Email: brian.bertsch@fitchratings.com.
Additional information is available at ''. The ratings above were solicited by, or on behalf of, the issuer, and therefore, ֳ has been compensated for the provision of the ratings.
Applicable Criteria and Related Research:
--'Corporate Rating Methodology' (Aug. 12, 2011);
--'Utilities Sector Notching and Recovery Ratings' (Aug. 12, 2011);
--'Parent and Subsidiary Rating Linkage' (Aug. 12, 2011);
--'Treatment and Notching of Hybrids in Nonfinancial Corporate and REIT Credit Analysis'
(Dec. 15, 2011).
Applicable Criteria and Related Research:
PARTICIPATION STATUS
The rated entity (and/or its agents) or, in the case of structured finance, one or more of the transaction parties participated in the rating process except that the following issuer(s), if any, did not participate in the rating process, or provide additional information, beyond the issuer’s available public disclosure.