Outlook Report
North American Steel Outlook 2024
Wed 29 Nov, 2023 - 12:48 PM ET
ֳ expects North American steel demand to grow modestly in 2024. Overall, sector fundamentals remain solid, supported by industry consolidation, which has led to supply discipline, and strategic investments aimed at strengthening operational profiles, which have improved through-the-cycle margins. Companies’ financial profiles are well positioned within respective sensitivities. However, ֳ expects earnings and margins to continue to trend lower from 2022 cycle highs in line with steel prices, leading to the neutral sector outlook. Interest rates, inflation, supply chain challenges and a stronger U.S. dollar continue to be headwinds. U.S. Midwest hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices were approximately 20% lower in 9M23 compared with the same period in 2022. ֳ believes HRC prices will, on average, be lower in 2024 than in 2023 but remain above historical averages, and at a relatively healthy level for domestic producers.