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The downgrade of Orsted A/S’s ratings reflects projected net leverage averaging 3.5x for 2025-2027 (3.5x in 2024), which exceeds our tightened negative rating sensitivity of 3.0x for a ‘BBB+’ rating. The downgrade reflects weaker-than-expected results in 2024, due to insufficient contingencies and back-up remedies amid operational challenges in North America. It also reflects material execution risk in 2025-2027 due to persisting uncertainties in US offshore developments and disposals, heightened by higher political risk. Nevertheless, Orsted’s record in other regions remains solid, and the company will focus almost exclusively on finalised or approved projects until end-2027. The Stable Outlook reflects its headroom at the new rating level to accommodate potential setbacks and management’s public commitment to a solid investment grade. Key Rating Drivers: Tightened Debt Capacity: We have further reduced Orsted’s debt capacity by 0.2x (funds from operations (FFO) net leverage), resulting in a cumulative 0.5x reduction from early 2024 levels.

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