巴黎人娱乐城

フィッチ?レーティングス－香港－2015年3月18日：
フィッチ?レーティングス（フィッチ）は、オーストラリア连邦（オーストラリア）の外货建ておよび自国通货建て长期発行体デフォルト格付（滨顿搁）を「础础础」に据え置いた。格付アウトルックは「安定的」である。同国の外货建ておよび自国通货建て无担保优先债券の格付も「础础础」に据え置いた。カントリー?シーリングは「础础础」に、外货建て短期滨顿搁は「贵1+」に据え置きとした。

KEY RATING DRIVERS
The affirmation of Australia's sovereign ratings reflects the following factors:

- Australia's highly developed economy, strong governance and effective public and social institutions are consistent with its status as one of the world's most highly-rated sovereigns. A credible policy framework, low public debt and free-floating exchange rate give Australia flexibility to respond to changing economic conditions.

- Real GDP growth is high relative to 'AAA' rated peers, and has been more stable, despite reliance on commodity exports, particularly to China. 巴黎人娱乐城 forecasts real GDP growth to accelerate to 3.2% in 2016, as a growing output of natural resources more than offsets slowing mining investment. However, the continued fall in the terms of trade has further slowed real income growth. High foreign ownership in the mining industry also curbs the benefits from rising resource exports for the domestic economy. Weak domestic demand, along with cost-cutting in the mining sector, has contributed to a gradual rise in the unemployment rate to 6.3% in February 2015. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) responded with another rate cut - the first since August 2013 - reducing the cash rate to a record low of 2.25%.

- Longer-term, a recovery in the non-mining business sector would help maintain Australia's economic growth. Business confidence remains modest, evident in timid investment intentions. The weaker Australian dollar is expected to help exporting sectors, but it is too early to tell if there are more structural competitiveness issues at work.

- Australia's public debt burden remains lower than 'AAA' peers, at 31.8% of GDP. The general government deficit, combining central and state government balances, was higher than expected in FY14 at 4.5% of GDP because of weak wage growth and lower corporate profits reducing tax receipts. 巴黎人娱乐城 expects the general government deficit to fall to 3.5% of GDP in FY15. The fiscal consolidation process has been slower than the path set out by the government in the FY2014-15 budget, as not all proposed policies were passed by the Senate. 巴黎人娱乐城 projects Australia's public debt burden to remain significantly lower than 'AAA' peers in the medium-term even under currently legislated policies. However, the fiscal position is sensitive to a marked deterioration in economic conditions, especially without offsetting policy measures.

- At 153% of disposable income, relatively high levels of debt leave households vulnerable to job losses and higher interest rates. High levels of household savings help households meet debt repayments and maintain consumption, if faced with a negative shock. Nonetheless, a sustained period of economic weakness could erode these savings, leading to defaults. Widespread defaults could also trigger a fall in house prices, which have risen by 20% since 2012 across state capitals. A high proportion of investors may make the housing market more sensitive to changes in risk appetite, although the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority (APRA) has outlined further steps to reinforce bank lending practices and contain potential systemic risks.

- Australia holds 巴黎人娱乐城's highest banking system indicator (BSI) score of 'aa', reflecting sound profitability, strong capital buffers and an improving funding profile. This helps contain negative financial spillovers should there be a sharp fall in house prices. Bank capital ratios do not breach minimum requirements in APRA's 2014 stress scenario, in which house prices fall by 40% and the unemployment rate rises to 13%.

- External finances remain a credit weakness. Net external debt is almost triple the 'AAA' median at 52.2% of GDP in 2014. The current account deficit is also wider than peers, but has narrowed since 2012. A number of factors insulate Australia from short-term funding and exchange rate risks often witnessed in external debt crises. Banks, which make up 60% of external liabilities, are well-hedged against maturity and currency mismatches. The sovereign borrows entirely in local currency, and Australia as a whole has more foreign currency assets than liabilities once hedging is taken into account. However, a change in circumstances that leads to sustained reallocation of capital away from Australia by foreign investors could lead to a more disorderly adjustment.

RATING SENSITIVITIES
The Outlook is Stable, reflecting the fact that 巴黎人娱乐城 does not currently anticipate developments with a high likelihood of leading to a rating change. However, future developments that could individually, or collectively, result in a downgrade of the ratings include:
- A weak or non-existent recovery in the non-mining sector leading to lower potential growth and employment as the benefits from the mining boom fade, and pressure on public finances.
- A negative external shock, such as a continued rapid decline in the terms of trade following a severe slowdown in China, could lead to a sharp increase in the current account deficit and/or a sustained reallocation of foreign capital.
- A sharp economic downturn, which could also be triggered by external events, could lead to widespread household defaults, banking system distress and a negative impact on public finances.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS
The ratings and outlooks are sensitive to the following assumption:
-The global economy performs broadly in-line with 巴黎人娱乐城's Global Economic Outlook, particularly China which has become a key destination for Australian exports. 巴黎人娱乐城 expects China to grow by 6.8% in 2015.

（本稿の英語版は、「巴黎人娱乐城 Affirms Australia at AAA/Stable」（2015年3月18日付）として公表されています。）

照会先：
主任格付アナリスト
Andrew Colquhoun
Senior Director
+852 2263 9938
巴黎人娱乐城 (Hong Kong) Limited*
2801, Tower Two, Lippo Centre
89 Queensway, Hong Kong

副主任格付アナリスト
Mervyn Tang
Associate Director
+852 2263 9944

格付委员会の议长
Richard Fox
Senior Director
+44 20 3530 1444

*当法人は金融商品取引法に基づく信用格付业者としての登録を受けた法人ではありません。

メディア照会先：Iselle Gonzalez, Sydney, Tel: +61 2 8256 0326, Email: iselle.gonzalez@fitchratings.com.

さらなる情报については、フィッチのウェブサイト / （日本语）より入手可能です。本格付は依頼に基づくものではなく、フィッチが投资家向け情报サービスの一环として提供するものです。

适用された格付基準レポートおよび関连するリサーチ：
「Sovereign Rating Criteria」（2014年8月12日付）
「Country Ceilings」（2014年8月28日付）

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Additional information is available on

Applicable criteria, 'Sovereign Rating Criteria' dated 12 August 2014 and 'Country Ceilings' dated 28 August 2014, are available at .

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