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Emerging market sovereign rating actions in 2025 have been balanced, with four downgrades (Bolivia, China, Gabon, Mozambique) and four upgrades (Aruba, El Salvador, Nigeria, Pakistan). Nine EM sovereigns are on Positive Outlook, while six are on Negative Outlook. The ongoing trade war is expected to reduce global growth, increase US inflation, and delay Federal Reserve rate cuts. ���������ֳ� forecasts EM GDP growth (excluding China) at 3.0% in 2025 and 2026, down from 3.9% in 2024. US policy uncertainty has raised bond yields and financing risks for EMs. However, a depreciating US dollar eases debt burdens for EMs with large dollar-denominated debts, allowing some central banks to cut rates faster. The report also addresses key questions from investors about the economic outlooks and fiscal policies of various countries, including China, India, Indonesia, Argentina, Panama, Peru, Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Kenya, Turkey, Romania, and the Caucasus region.

This abstract may have been generated in whole or in part using artificial intelligence and is therefore subject to error and inaccuracy, including but not limited to, hallucination. Further disclaimer can be found