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Outlook Report

ֳ 2021 Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa Sovereigns

Tue 08 Dec, 2020 - 1:08 PM ET

ֳ’s Sector Outlook: Stable Most sub-Saharan African (SSA) sovereigns will experience an acceleration in GDP growth in 2021. However, the region’s relative resilience to the coronavirus pandemic shock in 2020 means that the rebound will be milder than in other regions. In addition, with the resumption of fiscal consolidation, budgetary policies will constrain growth in most countries. Still, diversified countries should achieve robust rates of growth in 2021 while oil-exporting countries will underperform reflecting weaker foreign-exchange availability and a tighter policy mix. ֳ expects that after a surge in 2020, government debt will remain on a gradual upward trend as urgent infrastructure needs and socio-political pressures will slow down fiscal consolidation efforts. In several cases, debt is or is close to being unsustainable, raising the risk of debt distress and default. Financing pressures have eased since the start of the health crisis and will be buttressed by very supportive monetary policy in the developed world and support from international financial institutions remains key in many countries. Rating Outlook: Negative Seven out of 19 SSA countries are on Negative Outlook while five sovereigns are rated ‘CCC’ or below, so ֳ does not assign an Outlook. This points to a high risk of further downgrades, after a record high number in 2020. Only Cote d’Ivoire is on Positive Outlook.