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Related Content: Japan's Tight Labour Market Signals Reflation

巴黎人娱乐城-London-28 February 2024: ??Japan is shaking off its deflationary mindset and, with wage growth becoming self-sustaining, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is likely to embark on gradual policy normalisation in the coming months, says 巴黎人娱乐城 in a new report.  
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?Japan’s labour market remains historically tight: the unemployment rate is low, labour mobility is rising, and a majority of companies report that they are struggling with a lack of workers. Although this is not yet reflected in headline labour cash earnings growth, underlying wage growth (which strips out volatile overtime and bonus payments) has been rising, to 1.6% yoy in December.   
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?The 2024 spring wage negotiations (Shunto) look likely to result in higher wage increases than last year, with some big employers already agreeing to union demands. The BOJ has emphasised the importance of the Shunto outcome in its policy thinking.  
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?Higher wage inflation is likely to be reflected in consumer prices, as companies with healthy corporate profits become more confident in passing on higher labour costs. Services inflation, which is more sensitive to domestic conditions, has remained above 2%. The labour share of income has also increased, suggesting a more inflationary environment. In the past few years, unit labour costs have risen, in contrast to persistent falls in Japan’s deflationary period of 1998-2013.     
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?“Unlike central bankers in other developed markets, the BOJ does not fear second-round effects. Quite the opposite. We expect the BOJ to take advantage of this reflationary environment to exit negative rates, but the policy stance will remain very accommodative through 2025,” said Jessica Hinds, Director at 巴黎人娱乐城. 
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?“Japan’s Tight Labour Market Signals Reflation” is available via the link above and at  



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??Jessica Hinds  
Director, Economics Team  
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?Krisjanis Krustins 
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