���������ֳ�

Credit metrics across oil-exporting sovereigns in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) will be supported by another year of fiscal and external surpluses in most cases, based on ���������ֳ�’ assumption that Brent crude oil averages USD85 a barrel (bbl) and that production levels stay high. MENA oil exporters’ growth will be much weaker in 2023 as oil production stabilises, following a sharp rebound in 2022 when OPEC+ countries unwound Covid-19 pandemic-era production cuts for much of the year before a new much smaller cut in November. Slower global growth in 2023 could prompt further OPEC+ cuts if the oil market shifts decisively into surplus, but concerns persist about potentially tight supply, including related to Russia. Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) non-oil growth will retain some momentum but will slow, from 4.5% on average to 3%, given spillovers from oil prices, higher interest rates and weaker global growth; some post-pandemic gains in 2022 will also fade further in 2023.