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���������ֳ� expects the outlook for Middle East and North Africa sovereigns to be ‘neutral’ in 2025, balancing fairly stable oil prices and reasonable economic growth against high but contained political and geopolitical risk. Escalation between Israel and Iran appears to have ceased, but conflict continues elsewhere and recent events in Syria highlight regional reverberations. The course and spillovers from this turbulence remain unpredictable and elevate risks. We forecast Brent crude oil will average USD70 a barrel (bbl) in 2025, above the expected fiscal break-even price for all Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) sovereigns bar Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. Reforms and large capex have enhanced GCC sovereigns’ capacity to absorb lower oil prices. Non-oil growth is set to remain robust, reflecting public (government and related entity-financed) and private investment, which is benefitting from reforms to the business environment and labour markets. Reforms and FDI will support economic activity of the region’s non-oil exporters, but growth will be weak. This will complicate fiscal consolidation, but spending restraint, reforms and enhanced revenue collection will allow for a small decline in debt/GDP, which will stay high relative to peers. External financing challenges remain for those at the lower end of the rating scale.