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Special Report

Sovereign Ratings Vulnerability Heatmap in Adverse Ukraine War, Stagflation Scenario

Tue 05 Apr, 2022 - 10:18 AM ET

This data file is a supplement to the Special Report "What the Ukraine War, Global Stagflation Scenario May Mean for Sovereign Ratings". Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the resulting western sanctions have implications for the creditworthiness of other sovereigns through direct exposures to the affected countries, wider macroeconomic spillovers such as higher commodity prices and inflation, and the impact on policy settings. ֳ has assessed sovereign rating vulnerabilities in an adverse scenario, which is not the baseline scenario, in which the war would have an even greater and longer-lasting impact than expected on inflation, economic growth, and external financing conditions.Emerging Europe, Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and Asia-Pacific (APAC) would be the most affected regions in this scenario, with a ‘Medium Impact’ characterised by numerous Outlook changes and a few possible rating changes. Emerging European sovereigns would be most affected because of their proximity to the conflict and economic ties with Russia. No region would experience widespread sovereign rating changes in this scenario, relative to our baseline.