Vietnam

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Rating Report

Vietnam

Tue 23 Jul, 2024 - 8:48 AM ET

Key Rating Drivers Favourable Growth Prospects: Vietnam's rating affirmation at 'BB+' with a Stable Outlook reflects a strong medium-term growth outlook, underpinned by sustained FDI inflows, sound public finances reflected by low government debt, and a favourable external debt profile. This is balanced against credit weaknesses from a relatively underdeveloped policy framework, high leverage in the economy, and lower per-capita GDP than peers. Sustained FDI Inflows: ֳ expects medium-term growth of 6%-7% to be driven by strong FDI and favourable demographics. An educated workforce, cost competitiveness and entry into regional and global trade agreements should support continued strong FDI inflows, particularly amid the ongoing global supply-chain diversification. Realised FDI in 2023 rose to USD23.2 billion (5.4% of GDP), from USD22.4 billion in 2022, and was up 7.8% yoy in 5M24. Our growth outlook also factors in an expanding service sector due to increasing urbanisation. Economy Stable Despite Political Reshuffle: Intensification of the government's long-running anti-corruption drive has been highlighted by the significant turnover in the ruling Communist Party of Vietnam, including the resignation of the president and several other senior leaders. There is limited spillover of the ongoing political reshuffle on the broader macroeconomic and policy outlook.