Special Report
What Investors Want to Know: Emerging-Market Sovereigns – 2Q22
Wed 13 Apr, 2022 - 7:50 AM ET
War Compounds Stresses on EM SovereignsThe war in Ukraine has precipitated a second economic shock in little over two years. This is adversely affecting emerging markets (EMs) that are exposed to the stress points of the latest shock or already have limited resilience. These risks compound the enduring challenges from the pandemic and more rapid US Federal Reserve tightening than previously expected.The main stress points from the shock are reduced trade, tourism and remittance flows with Russia and Ukraine; higher prices and potential shortages of energy, food and other commodities; slower growth and higher inflation; tighter financial conditions; geopolitical tensions; and heightened risk of social unrest. High Share of EM Ratings at ‘CCC’ or Below ֳ has downgraded nine EM sovereigns in 2022, compared with just one upgrade, after net upgrades of two in 4Q21. A record 15% of EM sovereigns are rated at ‘CCC’ or below, highlighting the long tail of fragile credits. Negative Outlooks continue to outnumber Positives, but the net balance has recovered to -9 in April 2022, from a trough of -33 in August 2020, although this partly reflects the number of downgrades.The report covers responses to topical questions from investors.Which EM Are Most Exposed to the Spillovers from Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine?How Will China’s Latest Omicron Outbreak Affect Its Near-Term Growth Outlook?How Are Asian EMs Affected by Higher Global Commodity Prices?What Does ֳ Think of Argentina’s New IMF Programme?Are Higher Oil Prices a Boon or a Bane for Mexico?How Could Elections, Oil Prices Affect Colombia’s Fiscal and Growth Outlook?How Is the Ukraine War Affecting CIS+ Sovereigns?How Does the War Affect Turkey’s Policy Mix and Credit Profile?What Effect Will the War Have on CEE Sovereigns?How Will the Ukraine War Affect Egypt?What Are the Consequences of Further Delays to an IMF Programme for Tunisia?Will Ghana’s Recent Measures Improve Public Finances and External Liquidity?