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Special Report

What Investors Want to Know: Emerging-Market Sovereigns – 4Q24

Fri 18 Oct, 2024 - 7:48 AM ET

Emerging-market (EM) sovereigns have had moderate net positive rating actions this year to date, with 14 upgrades: Azerbaijan, Barbados, Cabo Verde, Costa Rica, Jamaica, Mongolia, Nicaragua, Pakistan, Qatar, Ras Al Khaimah, Tunisia, Turkiye (March), Turkiye (September) – and Turkmenistan outnumbering ten downgrades: Bangladesh, Bolivia, Gabon, Kenya, Maldives (June), Maldives (August), and Panama, Uganda, Ukraine (July) and Ukraine (August). This puts EM sovereign net upgrades on track for the most positive year since 2011. However, the recovery is moderate relative to the scale of downgrades over 2020–2022. Net Positive Rating Outlooks There are nine EM sovereigns on Positive Outlook compared with four on Negative Outlook. The net positive position of +5 has improved from +1 at end-2023, but is still equivalent to just 6% of ֳ’s rated EM portfolio. The report covers responses to topical questions from investors. How Significant Are China’s Latest Policy Support Measures? What Is the Rating Impact of the Political Transition in Bangladesh? How Likely Is the Maldives to Default on its Sukuk? Can Brazil Meet its Fiscal Targets? What Is ֳ’s Take on Mexico’s Constitutional Reform Agenda? How Does ֳ View Panama’s 2025 Budget Proposal? How Quickly Can Turkiye’s Ratings Further Improve After the Latest Upgrade? What Is ֳ’s View on Poland’s Fiscal Consolidation After the 2025 Draft Budget? How Does a Weaker Growth Outlook Affect ֳ’s View on Hungary’s Public Finances? What Is the Impact of a Potential Peace Deal on Armenia and Azerbaijan’s Ratings? How Is the Conflict in the Middle East Affecting GCC Sovereigns? What Are ֳ’s Expectations for Economic Policy Under the New Government in South Africa? How Does ֳ View Ethiopia’s New IMF Programme?