Rating Action Commentary
ֳ Assigns NewDay Funding's Notes Expected Ratings
Mon 15 Jun, 2015 - 11:18 AM ET
Link to ֳ' Report: NewDay Funding - 2015-1, NewDay Funding Loan Note Issuer Ltd
ֳ-London-15 June 2015: ֳ has assigned NewDay Funding's notes expected ratings as follows:
Series 2015-1 A: 'AAA(EXP)sf'; Outlook Stable
Series 2015-1 B: 'AA(EXP)sf'; Outlook Stable
Series 2015-1 C: 'A(EXP)sf'; Outlook Stable
Series 2015-1 D: 'BBB(EXP)sf'; Outlook Stable
Series 2015-1 E: 'BB(EXP)sf'; Outlook Stable
Series 2015-1 F: 'B(EXP)sf'; Outlook Stable
Series 2015-VFN: 'BBB(EXP)sf'; Outlook Stable
The final ratings are contingent on the receipt of final documentation conforming to information already reviewed, including the issue amounts.
The transaction is a securitisation of UK non-prime credit card receivables originated by NewDay Ltd.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Non-Prime Asset Performance
The charge-off and payment rate performance of the pools reflects the non-prime nature of the assets, which is mitigated by available credit enhancement. ֳ has set a steady state charge-off assumption of 18%, with a stress on the lower end of the spectrum due to the high absolute level of the steady state assumption (3.5x for AAAsf). We applied a payment rate steady state assumption of 10% with a stress of 45% at 'AAAsf'.
Given the specific nature of the underlying receivables, performance is not directly comparable with prime UK credit card transactions.
Changing Pool Composition
The portfolio consists of an open book and a closed book that have displayed different historical performance trends. Overall pool performance is expected to migrate towards the performance of the open book as the closed book amortises. ֳ built this expectation into its steady state asset assumptions.
Variable Funding Notes (VFN)
In addition to Series 2015-VFN providing the funding flexibility that is typical and necessary for credit card trusts, the structure employs a separate originator VFN, purchased and held by NewDay Funding Transferor Ltd (the transferor). This note will serve three main purposes: to provide credit enhancement to the rated notes; to add protection against dilution by way of a separate functional transferor interest; and to serve the minimum risk retention requirements.
Unrated Originator and Servicer
The NewDay group will act in a number of capacities through its various entities, most prominently as originator and servicer, but also as cash manager to the securitisation. In most other UK trusts these roles are fulfilled by large institutions with strong credit profiles. The degree of reliance in this transaction is mitigated by the transferability of operations, agreements with established card service providers, a back-up cash management agreement and a non-amortising liquidity reserve per series.
Steady Asset Outlook
ֳ expects UK credit card performance to remain stable, with only limited up-ticks in delinquency and charge-off levels throughout 2015. Payment rates and yields are expected to remain stable in 2015, but there is still no clarity as to how lenders which are reliant on interchange to fund their reward programmes will replace the loss of this income source (see Credit Card Index - UK 2Q15 at ).
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Rating sensitivity to increased charge-off rate
Increase base case by 25% / 50% / 75%
Series 2015-1 A: 'AA(EXP)sf' / 'A+(EXP)sf' / 'A-(EXP)sf'
Series 2015-1 B: 'A+(EXP)sf' / 'A (EXP)sf' / 'A-(EXP)sf'
Series 2015-1 C: 'BBB+(EXP)sf' / 'BBB (EXP)sf' / 'BBB-(EXP)sf'
Series 2015-1 D: 'BB+(EXP)sf' / 'BB-(EXP)sf' / 'B+(EXP)sf'
Series 2015-1 E: 'B+(EXP)sf' / 'N/A'/ 'N/A'
Series 2015-1 F: 'N/A'/ 'N/A'/ 'N/A'
Rating sensitivity to reduced MPR
Reduce base case by 15% / 25% / 35%
Series 2015-1 A: 'AA(EXP)sf' / 'A+(EXP)sf' / 'A-(EXP)sf'
Series 2015-1 B: 'A+(EXP)sf' / 'BBB+(EXP)sf' / 'BBB(EXP)sf'
Series 2015-1 C: 'BBB+(EXP)sf' / 'BBB(EXP)sf' / 'BBB-(EXP)sf'
Series 2015-1 D: 'BB+(EXP)sf' / 'BB+(EXP)sf' / 'BB(EXP)sf'
Series 2015-1 E: 'B+(EXP)sf' / 'B+(EXP)sf' / 'B+(EXP)sf'
Series 2015-1 F: 'N/A'/ 'N/A' / 'N/A'
Rating sensitivity to reduced purchase rate (ie aggregate new purchases divided by aggregate principal repayments in a given month)
Reduce base case by 50% / 75%
Series 2015-1 A: 'AAA(EXP)sf' / 'AAA(EXP)sf'
Series 2015-1 B: 'AA(EXP)sf' / 'AA(EXP)sf'
Series 2015-1 C: 'A(EXP)sf' / 'A(EXP)sf'
Series 2015-1 D: 'BB+(EXP)sf' / 'BB+(EXP)sf'
Series 2015-1 E: 'B(EXP)sf' / 'N/A'
Series 2015-1 F: 'N/A' / 'N/A'
Key rating drivers, & rating sensitivities are further described in the pre-sale report, dated 02 June 2015 at .
DUE DILIGENCE USAGE
No third party due diligence was provided or reviewed in relation to this rating action.
SOURCES OF INFORMATION
The information below was used in the analysis:
- Historical dynamic pool performance data provided by NewDay Ltd from July 2007 to March 2015.
REPRESENTATIONS AND WARRANTIES
A comparison of the transaction's Representations, Warranties & Enforcement Mechanisms to those typical for the asset class is available by accessing the appendix that accompanies the presale report (see NewDay Funding - Appendix, dated 15 June 2015 at ). In addition refer to the special report "Representations, Warranties, and Enforcement Mechanisms in Global Structured Finance Transactions" dated 12 June 2015 available on the ֳ website.
Contacts:
Primary Analyst
Sinead Egan
Director
+44 20 3530 1472
ֳ Limited
30 North Colonnade
London E14 5GN
Secondary Analyst
Maria Wilkman
Analyst
+44 20 3530 1732
Committee Chairperson
Andreas Wilgen
Managing Director
+44 20 3530 1171
Media Relations: Athos Larkou, London, Tel: +44 203 530 1549, Email: athos.larkou@fitchratings.com.
Additional information is available at .
Applicable Criteria
Counterparty Criteria for Structured Finance and Covered Bonds (pub. 14 May 2014)
Counterparty Criteria for Structured Finance and Covered Bonds: Derivative Addendum (pub. 14 May 2014)
Criteria for Interest Rate Stresses in Structured Finance Transactions and Covered Bonds (pub. 19 Dec 2014)
Criteria for Servicing Continuity Risk in Structured Finance (pub. 17 Jul 2014)
Global Credit Card ABS Rating Criteria (pub. 30 May 2014)
Additional Disclosures
Dodd-Frank Rating Information Disclosure Form
Solicitation Status
Endorsement Policy
PARTICIPATION STATUS
The rated entity (and/or its agents) or, in the case of structured finance, one or more of the transaction parties participated in the rating process except that the following issuer(s), if any, did not participate in the rating process, or provide additional information, beyond the issuer’s available public disclosure.