Rating Action Commentary
ֳ Places Various US Southeast Region Local Government Ratings Under Criteria Observation
Thu 04 Apr, 2024 - 2:57 PM ET
ֳ - New York - 04 Apr 2024: Click here for a full list of all U.S. local government issuers placed Under Criteria Observation.
ֳ has placed the U.S. Public Finance Local Government ratings listed in the Additional Rating Details Table (link below) Under Criteria Observation (UCO) following the publication of ֳ's revised 'U.S. Public Finance Local Government Rating Criteria' on April 2, 2024.
The ratings placed on UCO will require additional information and analysis to fully assess the effect of the criteria on the ratings. While these ratings may be affected by the criteria changes, not all of the ratings designated as UCO will necessarily be upgraded or downgraded. Placement on the UCO list does not indicate a change in the underlying credit profile, nor does it affect existing Rating Outlooks or Rating Watch statuses. ֳ will review all the ratings designated as UCO as soon as practicable but no later than six months from the date of the criteria release.
SECURITY
Bond security varies by issuance.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
The new criteria utilize a model-supported rating methodology that incorporates historical and forward-looking performance of select credit metrics and a structured notching framework to communicate the relative creditworthiness of the local government. The Model Implied Rating will be the Issuer Default Rating (IDR) except in certain circumstances explained in the criteria.
The IDR analysis for U.S. local governments groups rating factors into three Key Rating Drivers that respectively capture the issuer's Financial Profile, Demographic and Economic Strength and Long-Term Liability Burden.
The Financial Profile assessment reflects the degree of the local government's financial resilience and the sensitivity of revenues to economic stress.
The Demographic and Economic Strength assessment reflects the durability and growth prospects for an issuer's economic base, which underpins its ability to generate financial resources and help to inform a forward-looking view on both the sustainability of its debt profile and how its revenue volatility may change over time.
The Long-Term Liability Burden assessment is designed to evaluate the ability of a local government's economic and fiscal resources to support its long-term debt and retiree benefit obligations.
The model utilizes 11 key metrics categorized by the Key Rating Drivers. Metrics are presented as both absolute measures and as percentiles relative to other ֳ-rated U.S. local governments. A metric in the 100th percentile is the strongest in the portfolio, relative to historical data.
The analysis of security ratings (e.g. general obligation debt and various general fund-backed obligations, as well as bonds backed by sales, tourism, fuel and other dedicated taxes) is substantially unchanged, aside from the rating of bonds backed by an absolute and non-cancellable covenant to pay debt service equal to that of the issuer's IDR if the issuer's revenues supporting the covenant are broad based and controllable.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
FACTORS THAT COULD, INDIVIDUALLY OR COLLECTIVELY, LEAD TO A POSITIVE RATING ACTION/UPGRADE
--An increase in fund balance to above the upper bound of the current resilience assessment range given the issuer's budget flexibility;
--A decrease in the long-term liability burden metrics;
--Improved underlying economic and demographic performance including but not limited to sustained higher population and resident income and lower unemployment.
FACTORS THAT COULD, INDIVIDUALLY OR COLLECTIVELY, LEAD TO A NEGATIVE RATING ACTION/DOWNGRADE
--A decline in fund balance to less than the lower bound of the current resilience assessment range given the issuer's budget flexibility;
--An increase in the long-term liability burden metrics;
--Weakened underlying economic and demographic performance including but not limited to persistent population loss, rising unemployment and lower resident income.
CREDIT PROFILE
The U.S. Public Finance Local Government Rating Criteria outlines ֳs' methodology for assigning new and monitoring existing credit ratings on debt issued by, or on behalf of, U.S. local governments. Local governments are defined as governmental jurisdictions below the state level, which include cities, counties, school districts and special districts, among others. The criteria can also support the assessment of tax-supported hospital districts, water and/or sewer utilities, public transit systems or other enterprises with tax support, in conjunction with ֳ's "U.S. Public Sector Revenue-Supported Entities Rating Criteria" or relevant sector criteria, where applicable.
ESG CONSIDERATIONS
ESG Relevance Scores of each issuer will be reviewed during the UCO resolution. For further details on ֳ's ESG Relevance Scores, please visit /topics/esg/products#esg-relevance-scores.
REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF RATING
The principal sources of information used in the analysis are described in the Applicable Criteria.
Additional information is available on
PARTICIPATION STATUS
The rated entity (and/or its agents) or, in the case of structured finance, one or more of the transaction parties participated in the rating process except that the following issuer(s), if any, did not participate in the rating process, or provide additional information, beyond the issuer’s available public disclosure: Bradenton (FL), Atlanta Urban Residential Finance Authority (GA), Hall County & Gainesville Hospital Authority (GA), Osceola County School Board (FL), Coral Springs (FL), Jacksonville Transportation Authority (FL), Marion County School Board (FL), Winter Haven (FL), Gainesville (FL), Highlands County School Board (FL), Atlanta Downtown Development Authority (GA), Citrus County School District (FL), Hamilton County (TN), Fort Myers (FL), Inverness Community Redevelopment Agency (FL), Tallahassee (FL), Lakeland (FL), Atlanta Public Safety & Judicial Facilities Authority (GA), Miami Lakes, Winter Springs (FL), Orange County School District (FL), Riviera Beach (FL), Hialeah (FL), Broward County (FL), Atlanta (GA), Boca Raton (FL), South Florida Water Management District (FL), Macon-Bibb County Urban Development Authority (GA), Lewes (DE), Winter Park (FL), Knoxville (TN), Pasco County School Board (FL), Escambia County School Board (FL), Georgia Municipal Association (GA), Seminole County School Board (FL), Manatee County (FL), Reedy Creek Improvement District (FL), Forsyth County Water & Sewer Authority (GA), Martin County School Board (FL), Bradenton Community Redevelopment Agency (FL), Orlando (FL), Flagler County School Board (FL), Fulton County (GA), Birmingham (AL), Macon-Bibb County (GA), Hillsborough School Board Leasing Corp. (FL), Nassau County (FL), Deerfield Beach (FL), Deltona (FL), Mount Dora (FL), Sarasota, Tampa (FL), Okaloosa County School Board (FL), Clarksville (TN), Clay County School District (FL), Atlanta Urban Redevelopment Agency (GA), Miami-Dade County (FL), Monroe County School District (FL), Hernando County School Board (FL), Sunrise (FL), Hall County (GA), Flagler County School District (FL), Manatee Port Authority (FL), Citrus County (FL), Coral Gables (FL), Lee County School Board (FL), District of Columbia (DC), Florida Municipal Loan Council (FL), Inverness (FL), Shelby County (TN), Brevard County School Board (FL), Pinellas County School Board, Palm Beach County (FL), Hillsborough County School Board (FL), Memphis (TN), Chattanooga (TN), Sumter County (FL), Pasco County (FL), DeKalb County (GA), Cape Coral (FL), Kissimmee (FL), Hollywood (FL), St. Lucie County School Board (FL), Ocoee (FL), Orange County School Board Leasing Corp. (FL), New Castle County (DE), Osceola County, Hillsborough County (FL), Lake County School Board (FL), West Palm Beach (FL), Putnam County School District (FL), Doral (FL), Okaloosa County School District (FL), Jacksonville (FL), Hillsborough County School District (FL), Clay County (FL), Pembroke Pines (FL), Clay County School Board (FL), Okaloosa County (FL), Wilmington (DE), Hallandale Beach (FL), Tamarac (FL), Sumter Landing Community Development District (FL), Brevard County (FL), DeKalb County Public Safety and Judicial Facilities Authority (GA), Macon-Bibb Industrial Authority (GA)
APPLICABLE CRITERIA
APPLICABLE MODELS
Numbers in parentheses accompanying applicable model(s) contain hyperlinks to criteria providing description of model(s).
- U.S. Local Government Rating Model, v1.2.0 (1)
ADDITIONAL DISCLOSURES
ENDORSEMENT STATUS
Birmingham (AL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Brevard County School Board (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Cape Coral (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Reedy Creek Improvement District (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Chattanooga (TN) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Citrus County (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Citrus County School District (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Clarksville (TN) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Clay County School District (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Deerfield Beach (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
DeKalb County (GA) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Deltona (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Doral (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Escambia County School Board (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Flagler County School District (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Forsyth County Water & Sewer Authority (GA) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Fort Myers (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Fulton County (GA) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Gainesville (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Hall County (GA) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Hallandale Beach (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Hamilton County (TN) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Hernando County School Board (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Hialeah (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Highlands County School Board (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Hillsborough County School Board (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Hollywood (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Inverness Community Redevelopment Agency (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Kissimmee (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Knoxville (TN) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Lake County School Board (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Lakeland (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Lee County School Board (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Lewes (DE) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Marion County School Board (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Martin County School Board (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Memphis (TN) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Miami Lakes | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Monroe County School District (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Mount Dora (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Nassau County (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
New Castle County (DE) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Ocoee (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Okaloosa County (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Orange County School Board Leasing Corp. (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Osceola County School Board (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Pasco County (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Pembroke Pines (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Pinellas County School Board | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Putnam County School District (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Seminole County School Board (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Shelby County (TN) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
South Florida Water Management District (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Sumter County (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Sumter Landing Community Development District (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
West Palm Beach (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Wilmington (DE) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Winter Haven (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Winter Park (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Winter Springs (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Georgia Municipal Association (GA) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Boca Raton (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Bradenton (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Brevard County (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Broward County (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Clay County (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Coral Gables (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Coral Springs (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
District of Columbia (DC) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Hillsborough County (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Jacksonville (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Jacksonville Transportation Authority (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Macon-Bibb County (GA) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Manatee County (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Miami-Dade County (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Okaloosa County School Board (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Orlando (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Osceola County | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Palm Beach County (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Pasco County School Board (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Riviera Beach (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Sarasota | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
St. Lucie County School Board (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Sunrise (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Tallahassee (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Tamarac (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |
Tampa (FL) | EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed |