Outlook Report
ֳ 2022 Outlook: U.S. Public Finance
Fri 17 Dec, 2021 - 9:36 AM ET
ֳ’s Sector Outlook: Neutral All eight sectors in ֳ’ U.S. Public Finance (USPF) portfolio have neutral sector outlooks for 2022, indicating our expectation that credit pressures will be similar to those experienced in 2021 and consistent with ֳ’s U.S. economic outlook for 2022, which anticipates GDP growth lower than 2021 but still above trend, waning effects of federal stimulus spending and continued inflation pressure. The ‘neutral’ outlook for transportation infrastructure (‘improving’ in 2021) reflects improved volumes near or exceeding pre-pandemic levels and normalized long-term growth patterns. Rating Outlook Distribution Overall, the distribution of rating outlooks continues to reflect the credit stability typical of USPF. While the distribution has shifted more toward pre-pandemic levels, negative outlooks remain somewhat above the 2019 level. Approximately 88% of USPF ratings have Stable Rating Outlooks, 4% have Positive Rating Outlooks and 7% have Negative Rating Outlooks. Community development & social lending recorded the highest proportion of Negative Rating Outlooks, largely due to ratings tied to the U.S. sovereign rating (‘AAA’/Negative). Public power and water & sewer utilities have the highest proportion of Positive Rating Outlooks, reflecting low levels of pandemic-related pressure and improving leverage profiles, although public power has an even higher percentage of Negative Rating Outlooks, largely reflecting the credit implications of Texas storm Uri.