Outlook Report
ֳ 2022 Outlook: U.S. Public Finance Colleges and Universities
Tue 07 Dec, 2021 - 11:43 AM ET
The neutral sector outlook for U.S. colleges and universities reflects ֳ’ expectation for some enrollment recovery, solid state budget prospects and good levels of budgetary flexibility. Most universities are planning for a predominantly in-person, on-campus academic year in 2021–2022, which should help to stabilize student-driven enterprises, including auxiliaries. Solid market returns for most endowment portfolios in fiscal 2021 (ended June 30 for most institutions) have also helped to ease revenue pressures. The sector continues to benefit from substantial federal stimulus authorization, with calendar year 2022 likely the last year of meaningful budgetary support from any remaining stimulus funds. Relative to 2021, the risk of additional coronavirus outbreaks should continue to abate as vaccination rates increase. Top choice and selective four-year institutions have retained solid enrollment, although others continue to see pressures, particularly in the incoming freshman and transfer student groups. ֳ anticipates affirmations will represent the predominant rating action but notes that downgrades still remain slightly more likely than upgrades in the near term based on the current Rating Outlook mix.