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Outlook Report

ֳ 2020 Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa Sovereigns

Fri 29 Nov, 2019 - 4:16 AM ET

ֳ’s Sector Outlook: Stable
Sovereigns in Sub-Saharan Africa largely absorbed the earlier commodity price shock, and median government debt will decline in 2020 after a marginal reduction in 2019. However, weak public financial management, persistent high-priority infrastructure needs and pressure for improved public services raise risks for debt trajectories. Political and social pressures are significant in the region, but many SSA sovereigns are benefiting from rapid growth. External pressures have eased, but low diversification means vulnerability to shocks is high.

Rating Outlook: Stable
Of the 19 sovereigns in the region, two have a Positive Outlook and three a Negative Outlook. There are three sovereigns with a rating of ‘CCC’ – ֳ does not assign Outlooks for ratings of ‘CCC+’ or below. Benin’s Positive Outlook reflects continued fiscal consolidation and the expected effect of a national accounts revision of key credit metrics. The Positive Outlook on Cote d’Ivoire is driven by strong growth prospects and progress on fiscal consolidation and reforms. The Negative Outlook on South Africa is due to the difficulty of stabilising debt/GDP. In Angola, the Negative Outlook is driven by worsening debt metrics, the continued fall in international reserves and the slow economic recovery. ֳ revised the Outlook on Ethiopia’s ‘B’ rating to Negative due to prospects for continued political instability and potential meaningful economic spillovers.