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Outlook Report

Latin American Sovereigns Outlook 2025

Mon 09 Dec, 2024 - 11:54 AM ET

An uncertain global backdrop poses risks to Latin America in 2025, but also some opportunities, and the region counts on demonstrated flexibility to confront choppy conditions, supporting ֳ’ ‘neutral’ outlook for the sector. Lower commodity prices, and the trade and immigration policies of the incoming Trump administration could affect growth dynamics in the region, and also result in greater U.S. dollar strength and volatility in financing conditions. But this backdrop could also present the region with some opportunities via “nearshoring”. Scope for counter-cyclical policy to confront shocks is fairly limited, particularly on the fiscal side. However, moderate external imbalances, strong external liquidity buffers and sound banking systems should support flexibility to manage challenging scenarios, as they have in recent years.