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GDP Contracting Mainly Due to Indirect Effects of Coronavirus Pandemic Median GDP growth among sovereigns in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) will contract by 2.4% in 2020, with growth expected to recover to 4% in 2021 and 5% in 2022. The contraction this year will be milder than in any other major region, but is still a deep fall relative to average growth of 3.8% in 2015-2019. The impact of pandemic-related containment measures has been more muted and infection rates have also stayed limited in SSA (with South Africa a notable exception on both counts), but the indirect effects via commodity prices, tourism, financing conditions and other external linkages have still led to a heavy impact on growth and ratings. Record Downgrades in 2020 ���������ֳ� in 2020 has downgraded seven of the 19 SSA rated sovereigns (Angola and Zambia twice). The downgrades partly reflected a deterioration preceding the pandemic, but also the heavy hit to fiscal balances and external liquidity from the pandemic. More generally, the region entered the crisis with already relatively high debt and weak external buffers. This is illustrated by the fact that median government debt at end-2019, at 56.5% of GDP, was almost 20pp higher than five years before, and we expect a further rise to 72.8% by 2022 as a result of the shock.