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Related Content: Sub-Saharan African Sovereigns Outlook 2024

���������ֳ�-Hong Kong-11 December 2023: The macroeconomic outlook for sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) in 2024 points to stable median real GDP growth and lower average inflation, which nonetheless remains high across a number of sovereigns, ���������ֳ� says.

We expect financing challenges to persist and most SSA sovereigns do not have affordable access to international capital markets without credit enhancements. We forecast gradual fiscal consolidation due to financing constraints and fiscal reform efforts, which, in many cases, are linked to IMF programmes. This consolidation will help government debt/GDP to broadly stabilise.

We expect that Ghana and Zambia will emerge from default on their foreign-currency debt in 2024, although, in both cases, the debt restructuring process under the Common Framework is vulnerable to further delays. Multilateral funding will remain a important source of support across the region.

However, risks remain. We assume that global growth will be weaker in 2024, including due to the slowdown in China and, although we expect the US Federal Reserve and ECB to start cutting rates in 2024, interest rates will remain high relative to pre-Covid-19 pandemic years. This implies that market financing conditions for SSA sovereigns will remain costly and severely constrained. For sovereigns facing external liquidity challenges, this could lead to exchange-rate pressure that loops back into inflation and makes government debt more burdensome to service.

The net Rating Outlook balance is -3, with three sovereigns on Negative Outlook (Cameroon, Kenya and Uganda); Gabon is on Rating Watch Negative, following the coup in August 2023; and only Cabo Verde is on Positive Outlook.

���������ֳ� does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings at ‘CCC+’ or below. In SSA, there are five sovereigns where this is the case: Congo (CCC+), Ethiopia, Ghana (RD), Mozambique (CCC+) and Zambia (RD).

‘Sub-Saharan African Sovereigns Outlook 2024’ is available via the link above or at .

Contact:

Toby Iles
Director
+852 2263 9832
toby.iles@fitchratings.com



Media Relations: Peter Fitzpatrick, London, Tel: +44 20 3530 1103, Email: peter.fitzpatrick@thefitchgroup.com

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